Thank you for the explanation. I am inquisitive by nature and this leads me to more questions, but I will leave them for another time. 
Yes, it is not the easiest thing reading charts because each line has itās own story and significance which is difficult to explain easily. Iāve mentioned before the amount of time and effort Iāve put into learning over the last 16 monthsā¦itās pretty ridiculous when I think about it because the last 7 months I have been unemployed and kind of made this my job where I put in an easy 10-12 hour daily routing looking at them until I am able to get employmentā¦or until crypto moons and I donāt need to find employmentā¦which ever comes first.
EDIT:
Trying to visualize the future flow of the moving averages combined with the resistance lines and zones plus the high trade levels, this is a rough visualization of what I see happening. I could be TOTALLY wrong, but this is what makes sense in my head with the information I can see as present.
Edit 2:
If you are wondering on the time frame of the break out above the descending wedge for a bullish reversal, itās March 27 in my rough estimate. That time frame would make sense.
1 Like
A little surprised you have not made good use of your TA skills, as you seem pretty good at it. As long as you win more than you lose then surely you would do well.
Iām not a trader. Mainly because the tax implications are setup to screw us in the United States. Every trade is taxable and it requires detailed recordsā¦no one has time to keep track of every single trade like that.
That sucks. Why such a draconian system? I didnāt realise the US was so anti-crypto!
That question gets into politics. But the short answer is the USD is the world reserve currency. Any threat against that stands to weaken that dominance. Second, the government is still trying to figure out what crypto actually is and how to classify it. It is an asset class they have no definition forā¦so until they can create a new set of asset tax policy for it, crypto falls under the capital gains tax as a commodityā¦which all commodities are taxed per exchange. Hence the same requirement for crypto.
Edit:
In fact, it is tax season and I have no idea how to report my crypto and losses. Iāve asked my accountant and she doesnāt even knowā¦so Iām kind of in limboā¦itās frustrating.
Thanks for the answer. Again, lots more question spring to mind but Iāle leave it at that. Very helpful.
1 Like
Well 2.5 hours later and BTC has recovered $50 and back at 3,850 on CMC:)
Is it almost inevitable that BTC is in a 4 Elliot wave or has too capitulate before it finds a bottom. I guess we will find out.
1 Like
Yeah we have the same problem here in Australia. Also trying to get a tax accountant to sort out your gains/losses is a major pain. I gave up getting someone else to do it in the end and just used cointracking.info. It keeps track of all your trades and can generate a tax report for you as well.
Morning all! I posted thi before, just to show that wave 2/3 hit the 61.8 zone, so lets aim for wave 3/3 now?
1 Like
Letās hope Tikaā¦but Iām not going to hold my breath. The candle where we dipped actually had a complete recovery above the uptrend line. The current candle is struggling to stay above it, but it is holding so far. So we have a chance to move up and test that heavy resistance zone sooner than I anticipated, so long as we stay above that trend line.
We talked about long wicks earlier in this thread and how they tend to indicate an opposite directional move. Granted, the wick we had on the last daily candle was not big by any means, but it did test a bunch of key support lines and failed to break them. This typically means the path of least resistance is the opposite direction, which would be upā¦at least for now. Weāll see how this plays out on this new daily candle. So far so good at the time of this writing.
1 Like
Very coolā¦but what haplens when the exchanges you use exit scam, go down or upgrade and wipe all old data? Lol
Something like this?
2 Likes
Well that just comes down to taking precautions like keeping backups of trade history, only using reputable exchanges, etc.
BTC update:
Today Iām going to do something a little different. Below is the daily log view on the BLX chart. The BLX chart on trading view shows the entire history of Bitcoin (Iāve zoomed in on the top pic to the current times). I have one simple line drawn in light blue. I drew this line ~2 months ago and honestly forgot about it (and this chart for that matter). But I happened to bring it up this morning out of boredom and saw what Iām showing you below.
Keep in mind, I drew this line a while ago and it dates back to September 19, 2011 with the first confirmed touch as resistance. Here we are now, March 1st, 2019 and you can see the chart still interacting with it perfectly.
I have no prediction on up or down on this post. But this is one of the most significant lines in my opinion. Typically when we fall under it, we fall pretty hard (granted it has only happened once back in 2011). Luckily weāve held up pretty nicely and we have a ton of support under us (EMA daily ribbon, three moving averages and the 200 weekly MA also coming up in the 3360 range). Iām just hoping it is enough to pop us back up above the line.
This is the WEEKLY of the same chart showing the entire history of BTC:
On the weekly chart, we have been under the line for 5 weeks. We really need all the support we have to hold or we could be in for a pretty steep and prolonged drop. I am still optimistic, but anything can happen.
7 Likes
I feel like the sentiment has changed (even in the mainstream media Forbes, Bloomberg, etc.) enough to the positive and the constant progress we are seeing in adoption/advancements that weāll see an upward trend start soon. Meaning I think that line youāve drawn is going to be a bounce point to the upside shortly. Fidelity going live this month as promised would be a good catalyst for that.
5 Likes
Personally I think weāve already seen the bottom, the bull market has started and our uptrend has also started (Feb was the first positive gains month weāve seen in a long time)
I think the sub 3k price calls are just people hoping to get a deal.
1 Like
I agree with you 100% @gjfrom and Iāve been saying that for a couple months now. But this is crypto and Iām not naive to the fact that I could always be wrong. Iāll be the first to admit it if I am.
We might actually see a pop up imminently as we have moving into the constricted 4 hour EMA ribbon right this very second. If we can get through that and turn it into support, we could see a run to ~4200 pretty quickly.
2 Likes
oh I know you have. but yea crypto is crypto.
on a side note I think the OTC markets have hurt us a bit. if the big boys had to go to exchanges to buy weād be at 20k probably by now. Maybe I am confused on OTC markets or somethingā¦but now it seems like we are waiting on the retail market to give a shiz about crypto again.
Yeahā¦maybe. OTC markets are used to keep the prices from dipping or rising in massive spikesā¦they actually help stabilize the prices as some of the sales are so big that a single exchange would be able to handle the volume with each coin bought being at different prices. So Iām okay with OTC prices as the sales are typically done at current rates without hurting (or helping) them in any way.
Hereās the move into the 4 hour EMA ribbon. Only thing Iām worried about is the volumeā¦itās very low which indicates a massive move may be coming. The problem is when price rises on no volume, it tends to break down.
EDIT:
But as mentioned before, there is a ton of support belowā¦so worst case scenario, we fall to those levels to test them againā¦well, actual worst case is there is a ton of sell volume that breaks them allā¦but the likelihood of that is low.
UPDATE EDIT:
We have popped above the 4 hour EMA ribbonā¦but we need to stay above and close in roughly 2 hours. We are having a little bit of a hard time with the trend line we are underā¦so that will be a key factor on this bar.
Update:
We managed to close above the 4 hour EMA ribbon and are now testing it as support! We are now between it and that trend line going up. There is so much support under the current price that I suspect we will slowly move up and hopefully break above that trend line and head toward 4000-4200. The next big ribbon is the weekly which has a very broad range. The lowest level is the 20 weekly moving average which as just entered into the heavy resistance area, currently at the 4344 level. If anything can put a major damper on all the support we have right now, itās the weekly averagesā¦but for now, we have room to grow
4 Likes
