ETN Technical Analysis Society


#504

You make a good job guys, thanks for your Technical Analysis and thoughts, i like to read it!

By the way, do you know this guy?
He makes great videos about t.a. on bitcoin


#505

Tell me wath is true TA because this can be good.

Macro! There is nothing that tell a change in trend, may be short time, but i dont see that. 50% more dropp will lead us to last all time high, it is also posibole to go to last time average, it is also normal and we will trade beetven 600-1200$ it is posibole, and some might cale it back to normal.

You have 2 sloping lines, why are they placed like that?


This is a better explenation on the coinbase chart with the pitch fork as a trading range and with elliots count

as you can see Bakkt and fidelity fits with the count area, dates are dificult when they are not sett, and i do blieve they have been priced in to the market for a while and the market cycle needs to play it self out.

If we go more detailed in to the latest cople of days


Zoom out and look left, BTC are going like klock work, The last micro 5 count might only be a ABC corection, but it is hard to tell or turn around with five wave with no ABC, but that is not likly.
When using a logarytmic scale and us a pitch fork for range it is easyer to put the proption right, and it is easy to see that 1200$ range are in reatch in the blue area up to early oktober 2019. But the bounc will be mutch stronger.

I hope this is a explenation is ok because this is the simplifyd road map with the longer lines.

When using the pitch fork 80% of the range must be in the green area, and that is difficult for a presice messurement

Her is showen som good indicator by using moving average, i might have using the wrong MA and EMA but i dont gona re do it no when tha chart is done and the diferent i dont know.

Happy Days


#506

He do good videos, but i think he is weary bull, and when he go pure bear i go bull :smile:


#507

I honestly don’t know where to begin…

  1. TA’s basic foundation is support and resistance lines…you don’t seem to use them or factor them at all. Your charts appear to be nothing more than trying to predict the future market based on past market behavior (I’ll tell you why that’s dangerous further down)…and again, the previous ATH is NOT 1221. It’s 3000. You’ve said the previous ATH was 1221 twice now and that is 100% false.

  2. My sloping lines are based on actual confirmed support and resistance lines based on actual TA rules, the fact you don’t recognize that and asked where they came from re-enforces point 1.

  3. You are not using any of the indicators correctly. Your Elliot waves appear to be randomly placed using wicks (which is not advised) and your Fibonacci placements seemed to be placed to predict the future instead of using it to predict a retracement which is a flat wrong way to use it. The green and blue corridor screen shots…well, they are pretty but it assumes we’ll stay in that corridor, which we most likely will not. If that corridor was a constant from which to predict the future over a long period of time, the 2014 market should have dropped A LOT more to stay in the same corridor of the pre-2014 market. You have to account for tiered growth and those screen shots simply don’t. FYI, there is an EMA ribbon you can use instead of having each one up individually, but I understand that could be a personal preference you like.

With all that said, your TA seems to be based on comparing market cycles. It’s very dangerous to do that and expect the same results. Just because you don’t see a trend reversal doesn’t mean it won’t happen at any moment. If people could predict reversals, we’d never have a cycle in the first place, but I digress. The movements of 2014 and 2018 may be generally similar in nature, but they are still unique market cycles with some key differences;

  1. A LOT more people are involved now than in 2014 (more people bring more stability which we will realize when this market is in the trillions of dollars)

  2. Institutions and institutional platforms are about to be launched (Bakkt, Fidelity, ErisX (Nasdaq), ETFs, etc)

  3. Governments are taking crypto seriously now and actively looking to regulate (this will remove fear from a lot of people and allow them to get in without worry)

  4. Media coverage has never been higher from large scale productions like CNBC to growing article platforms to countless youtubers these days…crypto is coming out of the shadow of whispers and into the lime light which is only a good thing.

Real TA is about knowing how to place lines and use indicators correctly on actual data to try and form an educated opinion on where the market might go. I’m not going to claim to be an expert, but I know when I’m using tools incorrectly. From what I’m seeing, you are using the tools to fit a narrative of where you think we will go instead of using them on where we have been. That’s not TA, that’s just guessing and doing it backwards. But ultimately, TA can’t predict anything at all. It can never account for volume, which can happen at any given moment and blow the charts up. Anything can happen and what typically happens is the exact opposite of what the masses think will happen.

I’ll end with this and will stop this line of conversation as it is way off topic. The most important part of TA is not technical at all. It is having situational awareness, understanding what’s actually happening in the world and taking those factors into account. For instance, you show a massive drop on one of your randomly placed Elliot diagrams with “Bakt and Fidelity?!?” label right before your drop. Do you honestly believe that when those go live we are going to drop? That’s a serious question because those two platforms alone open the door to enough money to blow past our ATHs without blinking. It just doesn’t make sense.

Hopefully I’ve made sense in some way. If not, you can keep posting your charts and I’ll just start ignoring them. It’s not personal, I have nothing against you. But your charts do not follow any TA methodology what so ever and should not be considered as such. But, they are pretty in both color and confusion :slight_smile:


#508

Yes, I like Karl. He does some good TA. I’ve learned quite a bit watching him over the last 6 months or so :slight_smile:


#509

Last post for me before I head off to bed for the night.

It appears we are seeing a bounce toward 4k as I expected and indicated on my post above at ETN Technical Analysis Society after an attempted bearish push through 3 major lines of support.

With any luck we’ll hit 4k and rise above it…but considering the time frames this is happening I seriously doubt it and expect a retracement once we get near or at the descending resistance line in the 4k region and we’ll assess at that point. I really don’t want to be correct from my post above…


#510

I think we are bound for a rise, very soon.
We will bounce from here.
Also i see Btc in the range 4200 area for weekend.


#511

The bounce was short lived and I see why. I turned the EMA ribbon on and you can see why it came up short. The ribbon has forced a more aggressive confirmed short term downtrend line which is coming to meeting point with the strong support. One of them is going to have to give way very soon. We’ll either bounce through the ribbon resistance or we are falling to possibly test the 3240 support.

My bet is we fall as that is the current trend. But the low RSI gives me hope that it could break up…

If you like to gamble, place your bets!


#512

168 tonight, morning… then rising 19X friday.
If news? 220?


#513

I love your optimism…but there is no reason to believe a rise will come on Friday (at least for BTC). If we do get news, it will have to be big to reverse the trend. I personally do not believe we will see a trend reversal until next month when Bakkt and Fidelity start futures trading. We could see a bump in the last few days of this month as companies (particularly in the US) put their money into crypto to side step tax obligations for the 2018 tax year…but I would not bet on it. We are definitely in a bear market that seems to be coming to a close. It’s a matter of seeing if we have a grand finale drop before the reversal. No one can say for sure. Right now everyone is guessing.


#514

Well resonated. But listen now. Btc 4200 in weekend…:wink:
Do i smell a bet?
I can bet on above 4050$


#515

LOL, no. I do my betting with fiat to crypto conversions. I’m not saying you are wrong. You could be right…and I hope you are. I’m not here to tell anyone what will happen. I’m just pointing out the trends and what could happen. It doesn’t matter to me, I’m pretty much already all in on fiat that I’m willing to lose. I know we are going up long term and that is all I care about. I’m just playing the waiting game now.


#516

Hehe, okay, just talking a 100etn funbet
:smile:. Its HexeTA


#517

Update on ETN TA, we are SEVERLY oversold on the 4 hour chart after breaking down from the 202 range. I have zoomed out to the daily where we have also entered the oversold territory as well. This is not financial advice, but if I had more fiat I’d be buying right now. It’s always possible to go down further, especially with BTC doing what it is doing. But from a pure ETN analysis without any outside consideration, we are at a very nice sat price right now.


#518

BTC update:

I watched Karl’s latest video (The Moon) and he pointed out a possible falling wedge pattern that I had not noticed myself (the white lines). Falling wedge patterns are very bullish, but time will tell if it pans out. We are in very dangerous territory right now under 3600 (on Coinbase) where we do not have a lot of support, BUT the RSI is very low so a bounce of some kind would not be surprising.


#519

Just a very simple take on ETN’s current price. To me, it still looks very similar to the price action in September. We shall see!


#520

Yes it does…and I did convert some BTC to ETN at 182 sats. We are WAY oversold. The only difference with the prvious price action and this one is the catalyst that propelled us up. We need that catalyst to repeat the previous moonshot. Tomorrow is Friday, so maybe we hear something…but I won’t hold my breath. We haven’t heard from Richard in nearly a month so I can only assume he’s working on the very things he will announce in the not so distant future.


#521

okay, I have never seen this before. A stoch RSI at 0. Yes folks, zero. LOL! The only reason to sell now is pure panic because I honestly don’t know if that has ever happened on a coin that wasn’t actually dead…


#522

How’s your btc chart looking?


#523

Have a look at this!