I can definitely agree with all of that. But the amount of coins would be/will be less and less thus the scenario of 700m volume a day required quickly declining. You are completely correct if at this point in time the price change happened this is what we would be faced with. I suppose given some time we will have a better idea in the emittion curve giving us a better understand of how quickly block rewards will decline. But imo there will be a point where it evens out where the block reward multiplied by price gives is a sustainable number that is able to be supported by volume. I’m not even sure if we are currently at that point of reward amount × price × volume actually I think we aren’t imo but the emmition curve + adoption will greatly be on our side.
Yeah and i put that factor in my original post
I can defiantly agree with that conclusion and current assessment. I just wanted to add to the conversation a different aspect we also don’t know when the bear market will end
Great imput I’m glad you posted what you did it really got me thinking as I have also thought the same thing many times. I agree time will tell
I pulled this comment from a video about XRP. I think it relates:
No, it doesn’t matter if there are a bunch lost.
It doesn’t matter if the millionares want 1.
The math does not work out for Bitcoin.
Even at the low btc prices of today miners are getting:
1,800btc/day x $2600 = $6.5 million/day
The miners are selling that currently because they need to to survive.
That is still a lot of downward pressure on the market.
The scary thing about POW/btc is that the higher the price gets the more downward pressure on the market.
Of course btc can’t go up significantly because of this.
If it got to $100K/btc miners get:
1,800btc/day x $100K = $180 million/day.
Dude! That is $180 million/day. I’m scared to calculate that out annually. Please feel free.
How come so many smart folks are ignoring this very simple math? btc can’t go up in value as a result. hello, knock knock knock . All of the other Bitcoin problems are secondary to this.
People talk about how it has rebounded in the past.
They are missing the point that the higher the price of btc the higher the downward pressure on the market.
Even with a massive influx of $ from Wall Street $180 million/day is obviously way too much.
Halvings shalvings. This is a short term thing. From mid 2020 to mid 2024 the rewards will still be 900btc/day. Another digital asset is going to take over the #1 position long before Bitcoin halves enough times to make a difference.
That would still be $90 million/day to the miners at $100K/btc.
Why doesn’t anybody talk about this?
Again, it is so obvious that it makes me believe the vast majority of btc investors don’t have a clue.
Remember, the same rules apply to all POW cryptos.
Why do we hear from well known high net worth btc folks saying the price can go to $250K? Because they own so much btc that they can’t sell it without crashing the market currently. They have to know that it can’t go up in value as a result of ^, but they know at ETF and another short bull run would be enough for them to get out. That is my only explanation and it is not my own original thought.
I love Bitcoin and the ideas behind it and I own some, but the math just does not seem to work out in the even short/medium term.
My guess is btc is going sub $1K by the time the second upcoming South American eclipse happens. Probably more like $250, and not $250K.
It seems the Wall Street folks actually do the math, and the math does not work out for POW . Don’t count on a Bitcoin bull run past $20K. This^ also perfectly explains the dramatic volatility of Bitcoin. As the price goes up so does downward pressure. Of course it is going to spike and drop with the same momentum. Sure seems simple.
The good thing is there is no cost to running the XRP network.
People need to realize this. When they do momentum will sway toward XRP.
Thanks for the epic videos !
Bitcoin who? You sure spelled ETN funny… wink
Relates well imo there are obvious key factors to be crossed before mathematically being possible. Electroneum differs slightly from bitcoin on that the emission curve is constantly reducing block reward instead of halving over years.
Does anyone have a good link to the electroneum emission curve?
I’d say the biggest difference between ETN and Bitcoin, or any other crypto for that matter is that no one is building an eco-system like ETN are. The reason is most coins are priced purely based off speculation. The only thing that can take a coin out of a speculative network is being mass adopted, because then it has organic value.
I found this thread discussing the emission curve. Someone said they did the math and that it will half every year. I will need to do the math myself. But in 5 years the reward payout may be less than 500etn. The reward is constantly lowering. This thread is worth a look imo
I would think the fact that the supply of ETN is 1000x the supply of bitcoin would also be a factor…
Bitcoin breaks into 10,000 I believe to the right of the decimal point. Electroneum is 2 to the right. The actual number that Electroneums supply broken down is small than bitcoins supply broken down.
So how high could the price of Bitcoin and ETN go? I thought it was virtually infinite but things that I’m reading tonight are making me think otherwise…
There are many factors to consider.
Currently the market it speculating based off projects with small use case. The biggest use case is bitcoin which is small imo. 1% of people are into crypto Currently. If we even somewhat mass adoption, the way I see it is,
Overall transfer of funds(transactions) in the ecosystem divided by the supply would give us a somewhat realistic number of what the price would have to be for the ecosystem to be sustainable. Of course we don’t know what that is yet.
Example: someone please correct me if I’m wrong. Just an example
If Electroneum truly does enable a 3 trillion dollar currency with a supply of 21 billion each coin would need to bring 142.8 usd to ensure sustainability in the ecosystem. Meaning if it were to stay a 3 trillion dollar market it would need to to keep that price in the ecosystem. Of course this is much easier to calculate when you know what the market is worth. This is of course just raw math not considering mining rewards and exchanges, trends and other variables but with demand comes liquidity and the supply will be less and less available. At this stage it is to early to guess and estimate numbers imo but there are really interesting variables that could change the whole game. But this is a marathon not a sprint. Well somewhat a sprint and marathon?
So that equation is assuming that all 21 billion coins are being used in the ecosystem, and 142$ is where the bottom would need to stay?
For the ecosystem to be worth a 3 trillion dollars market yes. Obviously there’s some flaws with these numbers I just used it as a reference.
Not all coins will be in ecosystem, but we will reach that point where the market worth is sustained in the ecosystem. Anytime the value were to lower on a exchange it would instantly be bought and used in the ecosystem as it is worth less on exchange than value in ecosystem.
Example: If you could buy milk at the store for 1 etn(5usd) but it cost 6usd at the exchange to get more Etn, you’re going to use 1 etn at the store. If someone sells etn for x amount of money less it will be bought instantly as it is a free % profit once used in ecosystem. Imo there will be a point in time this happens. Maybe not for years. But once that happens and we know how much the market ecosystem is worth it will give us a better idea.
there would be no way to keep track of the fluctuations in any meaningful way if you’re talking about small differences like that, but you raise an interesting point.
The numbers were just to the example. Let’s say Electroneum is with 10 usd everywhere, exchanges, ecosystem.
If That Etn worth 10usd is being sold for 8 usd someone is going to buy it right away. Because it is worth 10usd.
If 100m usd is being sold for 80m someone will buy it right away. Same concept.
Time will be one of the biggest factors as it contributes to many factors imo. There are so many factors to contribute its hard to explain thoroughly. But hopefully I gave you something you can take and do your own research on
Wasnt Etn at almost 0,2 on only hopes in the start. With nothing but just plans.
Me dzo kpor wo gake eladzo
Imagine that 1 ETN = 1.1 BTC
A lot of good points on both sides.
As people have said, we are all still “early adopters” in this crypto space. Anything is possible, both good and bad. I for one am sitting back, watching to see what happens, planning accordingly.
I do think it all depends on user #s to climb up the rankings, whether it beats BTC or not. At least ETN is building the ecosystem with an actual use case. Once that model is proven, i don’t see gaining users being a problem. (How many of our new users will have never heard of a bitcoin?)
As the movie says: