Hi all! It’s been a few days, but to be honest I have simply been watching the market in complete confusion. It doesn’t seem to know what it wants to do which to me is the first sign of a potential trend reversal. The ETN daily chart sums up what I’m talking about. It shows Bearish and bullish signs are the same time.
Bearish Signs:
It appears we have formed a bear flag
The stoch RSI shows were are over bought and need to come down
The 50 day moving average is swooping down into the price range which will act as heavy resistance
Volume is decreasing (this could be the ultimate indicator to lean toward a potential fall)
If this does turn out to be a bear flag, the drop measurement shows we could land almost exactly on the previous hard support of 175 sats.
(not charted, but situational awareness dictates charts too) There are some KYC issues that need to be sorted which is leaving a bad impression from the community (but hey, at least we aren’t PundiX right now, right?)
Bull signs:
The 20 day moving average is a strong indicator and it is acting as support with a clear turn to the upward direction. If it can cross over the 50 day moving average, we can expect movement up.
The RSI is not showing a bearish divergence, but it is neutral so it could go either way
As you can see my assessment leans heavily toward a potential drop in the short term. BUT, this is crypto and the market just jumped a little…so we’ll see…
EDIT: Literally 4 minutes after I posted this we had a small bump up (but we are still within the potential bear flag) and I saw a post on the ETN TV telegram with a link to the FAQ addressing KYC. Great to see! Hopefully those having issues can get them resolved by following the FAQ on their specific issue.
Seeing I mainly trade on Kucoin, I decided to pop on there and see what was happening since it seems to deviate from Cryptopia’s price action.
To add some more confusion to the potential price action, Kucoin looks a lot more like a rising wedge than a bear flag. They are similar overall, but the candle closes and wicks do make a difference in determining a pattern and these two exchanges have traded in opposite directions at times.
With that said, Kucoin’s chart looks a lot more bullish than Cryptopia’s, BUT the volume is reflective of what Cryptopia has. Rising prices with lowering volume typically results in a drop…but it’s still possible we see a nice spike in buy volume after BTC’s move today…so we’ll see.
Nothing has changed since yesterday’s post. We are still in the wedge. I’m going to start using Kucoin’s chart more than Cryptopia now they they have decreased their fee to the same as Cryptopia’s without the withdrawal limit. It has taken over as the top volume for ETN too.
I don’t have a crystal ball, but the signs point to a possible drop to 175 as I mentioned yesterday. The stage is being set with the 20 and 50 day moving averages closing in on each other, which happen to coincide with the top of the wedge…funny how that works.
The current price range has been solid regardless of BTC’s movement. ETN was in this range a when BTC was 3300 and it has remained in this range at 3900. However, with dropping volume and rising price (yellow lines), the inevitable result will be a drop unless buy volume comes in. TA can’t predict volume…it’s simply something that happens. So, we’ll see.
That is a mighty fine looking bull flag Bitfinex is showing @yol1. This is only my opinion, but I believe we will go up to ring in the new year. Both BTC/LTC are still holding to a loose inverse head and shoulders pattern. However, it is a weaker formed pattern so anything is bound to happen.
On the ETN front, absolutely nothing has changed. We are still waiting on the ascending triangle pattern to complete on the daily. There are still 6 days left on the pattern at most before we see some sort of movement (Jan 6th is the tip). But If BTC goes up, ETN will have a great chance to go up with it.
Actually, there is now an even better confirmed rising support that I didn’t see before posting the above. It’s not a big change, but it does extend the tip to Jan 10. But, that doesn’t mean we will take that whole time to make a move. Triangle patterns break at ~80% of the close which means we could see a break on the 3rd, give/take a day or two. But it is still possible to go to the 10th.
The horizontal line is a confirmed resistance line at 202 sats. The ascending line is the rising support. One of them is going to give out by Jan 10th when they meet. We will either get above 202 sats and start using it as a support which will allow us to go higher. Or the ascending support line will give out and we’ll drop to the next strong support line around 175 sats. My gut says we’ll get over the 202 sat line hump. But anything can happen.
The only thing I am concerned about is the decreasing volume. Decreasing volume on an ascending pattern typically forecasts a drop. However, volume is not something TA can predict or calculate. However, with this pattern and declining volume, we do have past behavior that would suggest there is a 60% chance of a drop and 40% chance we go up. But in this case I am personally betting on the underdog.
, are we in for a little storm?
