I think you explained it very well. It has nothing to do with new fiat coming in specifically. Liquidity is more about how easily it is to get both in and out of a coin. However, demand (buy orders) drives liquidity more than anything. If a coin has high demand, it has high liquidity because it is easy to get in and out to/from other currencies.
There are many coins that are very easy to get into, but it is not so easy to get out because there is very little to no buyers and you end up painting yourself into a corner because you have to hope demand increases so you can have the option to sell. That is a low liquidity coin.
That was a close reversal sign we seen, when it spiked up at the very top resistance of 8220. But looking at what that was in the aftermath it was just clearing the path ready, of any resistance for on the way back up. There was 11 hrs of mess to clear.
This drop we just had to 7880, was abit too big for my measurements and left a lot of resistance above us. That, in theory, needs to be removed before we move lower. This next move is the big one.
My lines show we have about 16 hrs to clear this resistance above us and I do not see BTC going any higher than 8060 in this current move.
There were already many good explanations on what they mean with the liquidity metric which inspired me to go look for the original source how CoinMarketCap calculates it.
It seems that they are not giving out the actual algorithm that they are using. But heavily paraphrasing from this page it is:
24h average orderbook depth weighted towards orders near the most recent trade.
They use the term āmid-priceā which I guess means the most recent trade. I think the mid-price could also be average of lowest ask and highest bid but that should not be much different of the most recent trade anyway.
Just scroll to the bottom of this page and it is the metric (11) if you want to see for yourself. Not a lot of text there.
Again we dropped a bit lower than I thought so that has left a mess on the track and the whales have been clearing all the mess it leaves behind. If it does the same thing as previous, then it will kick back up to 7950 area, cleaning what was left behind, they are efficient. According to the drop bounce range, this next process could take up to 19 hours from this message, the kick up being around 12 hours from now. But we have to confirm bottom first and that should be around 4 hours from now.
If I was a betting man I would go short at 7900 with a stop loss in at 8100 using 10% of your margin. But Iāam not a finical adviser, do not risk any more that you are willing to lose, good luck, how low will it go??
From a macro chart dating back to June, we could go as low as 7k today (not saying we will, but that is where the biggest support is today). In terms of the entire move, we could go to $6613 on/near the 16th of December when our current descending supports meets a longer term uptrend support line which started on 14th of December of 2018. I do not believe we will break both those lines, especially when they intersect on/near the 16th of December next month.
I agree, but the route is there for 6600. Here is my very messy BTC chart zoomed out. You see my green rectangle in the bottom right showing where a bunch of lines intersect (including the dotted support line you canāt see much of from a year ago). I have a yellow dotted line of support which caught us currently. Under that is the green 7223 line you are referring toā¦I hope that is the bottom, but if we hold true to the purple descending wedge, it may not be.
This was a failed bull run because of the resistance left at 13 to 14k back in the start of the bear market on 9th January 2018. Look at the chart, we didnāt have a kick back removing resistance that was left there and in a bull market, you clear the path on the way down, so the upwards momentum doesnāt get restricted on the way back up.
This current bear market is being really efficient at clearing the way before moving down further and if the whales really want to maximise the next push up, then a reset is needed and that will probably start from the original starting point of 4165. The bounce up will be so quick and clean and will probably stop at the 200 weekly moving average before pushing up to 13 to 14k and then build a solid support line for 6 months before attacking the 20k area. But this scenario is based on the extremes on whales maximising their profits.
The next stage is what comes next on wards from 23rd September 2019, a huge drop roll over and end with a final low then boom, all within 1 month.
We are directly on the purple descending support line I have in my pic above. If that does not hold, the next stop will be around 6300 where the long term support up trend line that I mention above dating back to Dec of 2018 is currently at.
If THAT doesnāt hold, then 5400 here we comeā¦and to be honest, I think I would be okay with it for accumulation purposes. I will push all my chips in at that price.
EDIT:
With the fall of BTC, we SHOULD see a rise in ETN sat price. Their is typically a delayed reaction as people wait for confirmation of BTC moves being realā¦but with this dump I could see ETN getting to the 60 sat rangeā¦weāll see!
High degree of a short term bounce in the vacinity of the underlying support line of the picture that tika posted above. But we might just also break it I still keep my semi bad TA since august that we are still in a extended bull flag movement for the weekly chart. Probably it is a bit to extended by now for it to be a bull flag pattern.
Worth mentioning is that weāre trading the range of 0.618 fib retracement of the 3k-14k pump right now.
This is how youāll know if this is the end of the drop and in my opinion, itās not finished yet.
In order to rally at this low of 6800, we need to stay at this level for 30 days in order to reverse the daily momentum indicator. The whales left resistance at 7720 to 8000 and we got rejected in an attempt to clear it and it pushed us down far too quickly.
If we get back up to 7700 to 8000 in the next few days, then we are going lower 100% and the target is 6000k, but with such momentum on the way down, we should drop to 5500 and there, we need to spend a month switching the daily momentum towards the middle with a final low of 4200 before we bounce back up to the 200 weekly moving average, minimum. Extreme case for this next bounce is 20k and above. Weāre talking about a bounce of 100 to 325%.
So, if we get back up to 7700 to 8000 in 15 days time, 6500 will be the final low. If we get back up to that resistance in just a few days, then there will be blood in the streets.
Area 1 shows where resistance was left in the previous bear market and shows why it ran out of momentum and was probably why this bull run was rejected.
Area 2 is where resistance was left in this current down trend and it failed again with a dump and pump, that was rejected, but it removed most of the resistance.
Area 3 was the cause of this resent drop, it will be removed at some point, when, like I said above, that time line is vital in what happens next.
The area of support below us in yellow is very weak and will probably fail to hold support.
The orange area should be strong enough to hold us for a month long recovery.
There is a chance before we move up, that we need to bounce up off the solid strong red area of support, just like the failed dump and pump did that was rejected area 2.
I still keep my semi bad TA since august that we are still in a extended bull flag movement for the weekly chart. Probably it is a bit to extended by now for it to be a bull flag pattern.
