Is this looong resistance line, going to break:
Zoomed in a bit:
It will probably fake out then dump to 8.6k before we rocket to 11k. Fingers crossed…
Very possible considering the lack of volume making the current push up and the fact there is still a small gap on the CME futures going down to ~$8888. 8600 is in the cards on a dip that sharp.
Plus those leverage trading platforms need to shake out those long positions. I think most people are thinking btc going moon any second now, that’s usually a bad sign.
It ssem that BTC is making Fractals again, on the daily, it is clear that its not time yet for the big roar?
So many ways to draw the charts right now and it is difficult with the indicators giving mixed signals. The good news is the CME futures gap got closed with a wick down to 8360ish. So we don’t have that worry holding BTC down…but that doesn’t mean we won’t take another big dip. Personally, I hope we do because I want more BTC. But if we don’t, I am happy with my current holdings.
Update to my update from ETN Technical Analysis Society (only because we are at a critical junction point of decision on the daily). I believe we are going to see a bigger move within the next 24 hours and let me show you why:
*I apologize for the missing sat values, they are not showing up on my chart for whatever reason and a refresh will delete all my lines on Kucoin (I wish you could save them!).
As you can see from my previous posts coupled with actual price action, the descending channel (in purple) has played out to perfection. The question now is whether the green reversal curve support line (fully shown on this post: ETN Technical Analysis Society) will hold.
My personal belief is it will hold and I’ll explain why.
I believe BTC is going to have a dip. Why? Because it has twice broken upward out of a resistance pattern and failed to have the confidence building volume to trigger any sort of FOMO…only to fall right back into the same pattern it should have blasted off from. To me, that shows a lot of weakness and I believe we will see a dip to around $8500. Why that price? Two reasons. First, it is the calculated measured move in the pennant pattern it formed after the run up on Oct 25th. Second, it is the .618 fib line from that same swing low to swing high move. It make a lot of sense for BTC to dip to that before continuing upward. Will it happen? No one can know for sure…but my personal belief is it will.
How does this relate to ETN? Because if BTC dips, I believe ETN sat value will go up…even if it is just to keep pace with the USD value.
None of this is financial advice and is me simply reading the charts in my own personal way. I could be 100% wrong and BTC could blast off to 11-16k tomorrow. Either way, I’m happy with my positions and I hope you are too.
The news about Africa today is providing a perfect bounce opportunity for the reversal curve support. It was literally perfect timing and a part of me believes this unusual announcement on a Wed was no coincidence. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum and keep moving up. We need to break that 40 sat resistance line definitively…
I recreated my chart from home on my work PC. It is not the exact same but the important lines I have been watching are there. It is also a picture since I can’t snip and share on my machine at work…bit it gets the point across.
As I was expecting, you can see we are breaking above the resistance line after touching the curve green support line again. If the current daily candle closes above that purple resistance line, we may see some nice upward movement. Very exciting!
The daily candle closed and we are above the previous downtrend resistance. I like what I’m seeing. The blue doted lines will come into play now as resistance (if you can imagine them extending further than I have them drawn). We have a long way to go, but we are def going in the right direction.
Aaaaaand there goes BTC (it hasn’t hit my 8500 target, but it did get to 8700 and it may not be done). As predicted, ETN is going up (back over 41 sats and toying with 42) to hold USD value.
What will BTC do going forward? No one knows. But my guess is it will drop to 8537 (at minimum) before it bounces.
Edit 4: (I need someone to reply so I can post again…can only have 3 consecutive posts in a thread…)
Looking good. I’ve extended and slightly adjusted the blue dotted lines to show where the current resistance is coming from. If we can break those lines we will shoot right to the 45 sat resistance line. Seeing that I’ve watched sell walls from 150k to 1.2 million ETN get eaten on Kucoin in single lump sum trades, I’d say our chances of seeing a nice break to the upside is pretty high in the coming weeks.
Good updates @Cryptoman976
thats a lovely smile
Well, my computer had to reboot and I lost all my lines from the last week…the good news is I got the sat values back on the screen and it gave me a chance to draw new lines on a blank canvass. My new chart is very similar to the old one so not a lot has changed. Instead of a single horizontal resistance line, I drew a more accurate resistance area.
BTC seems to have some volatility back in it, so everything is hanging on what it is going to do. With that said, we have a TON of support and we are testing it right now.
You can see we are testing the purple former resistance line of the descending pattern and we are also above the dotted blue line lines which are also acting as support now. We also have the curve green line support line…unless a whale decides to dump a ton of ETN (or BTC sky rockets to 11k+), I don’t see ETN breaking below the price it is at right now.
I’m not financial advisor, but if I had some spare BTC I’d be picking up another bag of ETN right now. The odds are in ETN’s favor currently.
We more or less hit the BTC $8500 range target I have had for the last week or so. However, I was looking for it to dip more toward the lower range than higher in the 8500 area, but that is getting very nit-picky.
We have seen it bounce back to the 8700 range after the dip but it is difficult to say if it is done. I would not be surprised to see BTC make another move to 8500, but I would also not be surprised to see it simply work its’ way back up into the 9k+ range. It is a tough call and all alts are hanging in the balance, including ETN.
I hate to say it but a lot of people will be buying at this point and when people buy BTC, they tend to always say, why does BTC always go down when I buy it.
Looking at the chart, the previous pump probably weakened the support area of 8500, so if that fails 7700 is the next stop and if that fails 6850 is the next and if that fails 5450 is rock bottom and if it drops that low, it would’ve fulfilled the fib retracement I measured from 3200 to 14000. I am currently shorting a bit, just in case because the bounce up…
Not advice btw.
Everything you said is valid. However I am placing my bets that BTC does not go below 8500 based on what I am seeing with a descending wedge meeting up with a longer support line dating back to 26th of September (not to mention 8500 is the .618 fib line from the last swing low to swing high). Of course it can break with the flick of a whale’s pinky…but I am much more optimistic it will hold.
IF BTC does break that line, 8k is the .786 line from the same fib chart. I could see a wick down to the 7700, or even the 7600 range.
Overall, to get from where it is now at 8650 to 7700 will take some massive sell pressure…but it is possible looking at the RSI on all time frames (except the 4 hour).
Edit: price hit my target in the mid 8500 range and I scooped some up right before it bounced back to over 8700. We are not out of the woods, but I call that a short term victory;p
We are hovering around the .618 fib level for quite a while. Volume is dropping / staying low.
I believe some move is bound to happen soon. If the H&S plays out it should be a retest to lower support. I wouldnt bet on either direction at the moment though.
ETN/BTC Daily chart
ETN on the Kucoin Daily chart following the potential rounded curve reversal pattern;
I’ve redrawn the dotted blue descending wedge lines to be more in line with how I had them in previous posts before my computer rebooted and I lost them all. They are ever so slightly different, but not enough to change the overall progress
Here’s the overall potential reversal pattern:
Here’s a close look at the present time:
ETN has fought through some pretty hefty resistance to get between the two blue dotted lines and I feel like we could see a pop up to the 45 sat range at any moment, assuming the curve holds support.
Something is going to have to give way by Friday (Saturday at the absolute latest). Either support will fail and we break the reversal pattern, or we’ll bust through the last blue dotted line of resistance and start heading toward the red resistance area to make a run at completing the reversal. Either way, I am honestly ready to see price move.
We are now at a critical point for BTC. According to my measurements, we are due a 7 to 9% drop and I’m guessing 8639 will be the big rejection point. If this does happen, then we need to bounce up above 9k and beyond to keep us in a bull market and it would follow the pattern it seem to be repeating. But if the pattern does repeat, then 11k is my target.
ETN has broken all the small lines of resistance in the potential long term reversal cup. I’ve removed all the descending channel and wedge lines as we are now above them and replaced them with a single red line that should now be acting as support.
Now we get to see if the green cup of support will continue to hold and propel us to the red resistance area of 45-49 sats. BTC is testing key levels of support on the /618 fib line of ~$8537 as I type this. If that fails and we drop, I expect ETN sat price to continue to go up. If BTC bounces, it may create some heavy sell pressure on ETN.No matter what happens, something is on the verge of giving and we should see some volatility between right now and early Saturday as I’ve mentioned before.