Electroneum economics


#1

Hello!

Here I would like to discuss opinions on how the Electroneum overall market economics works.
Basic information to start with:

Miners mining new coins on blockchain per day: 7.31 Million ETN [7,308,000ETN (2min blocktime, 10,150 reward)]
Mobile miners mining new coins per day: 0.42 Million ETN (With 100K miners, 3$/month/divided by 30day, at price 0,024$)
Mobile miners mining new coins per day future estimate: 2 Million ETN (With 2M miners, 3$/month/divided by 30day, price 0,1$)

VERSUS

Currently highest trading volume on a single day: 250 Million ETN, (50M$ at 0,2$)
Currently lowest trading volume on a single day: 25 Million ETN (140K$ at 0,0055)
Average trading volume on samples taken every tuesday at 3/20/2018 - 10/16/2018 period: 53 Million ETN (860K$, here you can not just take the average price, and divide the volume with it.This one was a bit harder. I had to calculate the ETN volume of sample by dividing the USD volume of that day by USD price of that day. and get average of all the samples. Thank you to @Mr.CryptoCZ for providing the excel for the weekly USD volume and price, if you have not checked it out there is some good information in that excel, it is in his description when you click his profile)

Related things to think about:
Not all miners are dumping all the coins they get. How many holders there are, who knows?
Definitely not all mobile miners are dumping their coins since they might not know how, or want to, or in future some of the coins might start to flow inside their own economy (market velocity).
Not all volume is miners selling and buyers buying. Good and bad news affect the rate at which investors want to increase or decrease their ETN positions.
Trading bots and wash trading can delude the trading volume.

How much will the trading volume grow in future when ETN gets real users from the teleoperators and what do you think of these numbers in general? I hope this can provide help to you in decisions making process :rocket:. If someone notices something is off, please tell. I worked hard to get these right :sweat_smile:


Fight The ETN Dump Club!
Uncovering the truth
Get ETN through mobile operators
I prefer to monitor coins that are in circulation rather than prices etn see pictures
#2

I’m not well versed at all in working these things out, but I will watch with interest people’s responses. Great idea for a thread.


#3

Thank you! For me these numbers are extremely interesting and definitely fun to see what others make of these.


#4

In the latest interview with the Global coin report Richard Ells stated that the goal for next year is to get at minimum 20 Million users for ETN. Now how would this affect the price on its own excluding the investors coming in? Please share your opinions, I will try to go through mine but in essence it is only an educated guess.

I think one person in developing country can give around 7 USD of demand to the market. I think they need around 10 USD for their monthly top ups and they will get 3 USD through mobile mining. Of course some will get more than that but the ones that only do the mining will lower the average of how much demand one person makes up. So, if these numbers are anywhere close to reality we would have 140Million USD of monthly demand. Now how would that affect the price? If all miners were to sell all of the 219,3Million ETN that are mined monthly and the total monthly demand is: 140Million USD + lets say we have demand for 10Million at the moment which would add up to 150Milloin in demand and around 220Million of ETN supply. The price of one ETN would be roughly 0,68USD.

Now that would be the underlying value of the coin. But add up the fear of missing out from investors and institutions coming in, the price could even multiply from that. And that is only the minimum goal for next year and in reality they could go much higher than that. And the long term goal is much higher. So all in all, I really hope ETN team does everything by the book and take their time to make things go as smoothly as possible to achieve these goals :v:


Fight The ETN Dump Club Round 2!
#5

This thread idea is absolutely fantastic and I will keep eyes on it! Great work :slight_smile:


#6

Thank you! I though it would be better for everyone to put some real numbers on the table. So everyone can do the math on them that they like. I was not too keen on the way how for example crypto NWO did his price predictions in his youtube videos (not showing the methods he used). So in contrast, here we can all be on an even playing field :blush:


Fight The ETN Dump Club Round 2!
#7

Coins for mobile mining are pre mined and already added to circulation supply. It is Mining simulation on phones.


#8

As they are locked up untill they are mined through mobile miners, in my opinion they can be treated equally to the coins that are mined through regular mining. I think I did not state anything opposing to what you just said in your comment :v:


#9

Yes it make sense. We can say they must be mined thru mobile miner to be usable.


#10

Added the average ETN volume to the main post. I hope it can be helpful for someone :blush:


#11

@Kahvia thanks for metion me its my pleasure to make every investor happy to see the grow in time. But now we are in slow motion mode :smiley: but maybe who knows its only 22 days till it begins :smiley:
Some people are tired of every day with the same post - but maybe its something behind it… its countdown for something not only for blocking the persons that didnt do it… we all beleive that some deal or marketing start soon. Very soon just 22 DAYS :wink:


#12

Ipostet this in fight the dump thread and tried to explain the phase we are in right now.

We are looking at exchanges as a rich to morrow thing, and we dont want that right now. Where I see ETN are at the moment is in a fase when a product is being tested and polish. The price right now is a reflection of where we are in the prosess, not hyped and still a risk product. Why is it a risky product? It is risky because no company have it fully integrated yet. We must separate hyped shitcoins from a almost finish working coin. We can blame miners, and every single individ on the planet for not doing us rich and give us money right now, the world dos not work like that.

When we are fully integrated in a company and they push ETN to their clients AND get results we are a working product with less risk. When the risk decrees the investors must pay more for a premium product.

For us to be that premium product the user must feel the benefits we got, and those benefits will they in first move get from their mobile provider or vendor. The more user numbers we get and higher turnover ETN get by being used as a coin will increase our value. The real marketing of ETN will not come from the team, it will come from the companies that use ETN, they will push it out, they got a lot more resources, they are professionals in their market. The ETN team marketing businesses and that is their profession in marketing.

The big exchanges that trade cryptos want do much for us right now, they might even harm us by pushing up the price to much. They are only good for us holders in a short time frame. We will get to those big exchanges when it is good for ETN, and I dont think we need a to high price right now, I would be happy but thats not my point.

In a close future when the mobile operators like Joytel got 20K users that got ETN before x-mas realise in February that the 50 ETN they got for 1$ is no worth 500$, that will be marketing in Asia. The same will happened in South Africa and maybe Turkey to. And when with a fully polish product and a great ETN team other exchanges will be coming and pay to list ETN, companies will pay for suport and integration of ETN . We must not forget that the team needs to start earning money at som point, and I think Richard wants to earn money ASAP. And for him to start earning he must have a fully function product with high demand, low risk and proven results. Richard even stated in one video that ETN is going to be one of the financially engine of great Britain, it is not a small goal he stated, and the ETN price is not the same as it is now.

We got ETN for free or close to free, that is risky, can we loose? Off corse we can loose! Are the chances for profitt increasing or decreasing? I think the ETN team follow the recipe of success, they have given the market a teaser (us, me and you) the user numbers, so they can market to companies over value. When ETN is building this community they are building common knowledge in the masses and a foundation. If ETN becomes a success others will try to copy that, and schools will educate in ETN in finance and marketing, this forum might be one of the tools where they can study the development of ETN day by day in history, lika diary.

Where the price goes from now and the next weeks are hard to tell, because we dont know when the mobile users starts the testing, but it suppose to be imminent. If the results are good the price will sky rocket rapidly and when new user enters the use case of ETN and starts to buy. Large investors are probably watching us every second and waiting for the buy signal, not from TA but from the development stage we are in and the results from testing. They dont giv a F… witch exchange we are on as long as the lawyers and the accountant are satisfied, and believe me they are watching us closely because this is maybe the most exiting project out there in cryptos that is ready for launch and we might be years in front of 99.9% of the other coins, and we are at a price that reflects the time we are in and not a hyped speculative coin,

To do som number crushing on Joytel it is important to understand the market they operate in. Hong Kong and South Korea and Joytel is for trawlers. Trawlers are not unbanked they are the opposite very well banked :slight_smile: They stay in places that suck the money from you like hotels, taxi, train, bus and airports. They do cross border travelling and spend different type of currencies and that is an expense in it self. ETN might save them for a lot of transactions and that can lower their traveling expenses. When this people see and understand the benefits this is giving to them, they will accumulate more ETN to reduce their average cost, so for a starter the average of 20K users buy 10K of ETN and that will drain the exchanges for 200 millions of ETN. That is 22-30 days of ETN max supply from miners. That will be around 4.1% correct me if wrong, this is high numbers. So with the word of mouth this ETN thing can spread around them and in sosiale media and kreate a network effect Metcalfe’s law (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe’s_law) so the real numbers are hard to predict, but this is guesswork all the time this never have been done before. so by extracting 4.1% from the exchanges we will gett a price increase that also is hard to predict, but by looking at the order books in different exchanges i think they can be weary slim afterwords.

The situation in south africa and turkey is not calculated in yet and neither any other events. But with all the green numbers we get while all the new buyers entering the market we must go in to TA and look to the chart and find the resistance and support lines to try to calculate the amount of ETN we can expect from sellers than have being holding and waiting for the right price, but we got a problem with or history because it is so short and our all time high was around 0.20$ so there stops our chart for statistics. My recommendation is to do a TA in BTC chart where the price was similar and calculate volume in % and not coins, just to find the psychological numbers.