It’s nice to dream. Speculation is fun. As you pointed out, this is guess work, and should be considered as such.
Here’s my guess.
Last bull run ETN was around 3 cents, and at the same time Bitcoin hovered around 45 k, topping at 60 + k. This is for me one benchmark, previous bull run overall crypto market cap, and then comparison between market caps of lets say Top 50 or Top 100 coins.
Biggest factor again will be overall macro market, global economy together with supposed crypto bull run, which is presumed to start this fall and continue to spring/summer 2025.
Second thing is ETN’s place in crypto world - Top 500, Top 100, Top 50?
If the bull run is coming, and altcoins make similar rallies as before, I think ETN should easily rise to previous bull market price of 3-4 cents. Previously there was very little to FOMO about - now situation is completely different for ETN. So that’s why I consider 3 cents as a range
When I think about the potential on the upside, I look at the market cap now - Top 100: 540 million. Top 50: 1375 million.
Can ETN make it to Top 100? With new developments, people and FOMO - I think so. In current market, that would mean 3 cent ETN. As the current altcoin market cap is roughly 1/5 of what it was 2021/2022 bull run, that would mean that bull run Top 100 price for ETN would be 15 cents.
Relatively, Top 50: Roughly 2.5x previous price. Current Top 50 price for ETN 7.5 cents, bull market Top 50 price 40 cents.
As for the market timing, usually around this time we would start to see a rise lasting until December, and then continue in January. People tend to sell when fiscal year ends. The global situation is so tense and a lot is going on, U.S. election, FED interest rates, Euro Central bank interest rates… Maybe October we’ll see upwards movement if all goes well, but I would think altseason will not start this year, but early 2025 and last until start of summer.
Again, pure speculation and simple, not very accurate math for fun - but I do think this line of thinking has some merit. At least I don’t consider my speculation over the top, as it’s not based on fantastical moon numbers but existing market data compared to ETN potential.